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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the biggest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime strugglers ascending together. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing five other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still