A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
